The dream scenario for any team when it comes to the NFL Draft is for some unbelievable player to drop and drop and drop until they fall right in their lap, leaving them with a no-brainer decision to make.
Unfortunately for the Las Vegas Raiders, Thursday’s first-round wasn’t anything like that.
At 12 there were a number of scenarios that had Raider fans dreaming: could an elite defensive player drop? The answer was no, as every one of them — including Florida cornerback CJ Henderson — were off the board, leaving the Raiders with their pick of receivers.
At 19, again, it felt like the Raiders found themselves right after a drop-off. CeeDee Lamb had almost dropped — but he didn’t — and even AJ Terrell, a guy many assumed was the Raiders’ No. 3 cornerback was off the board. Brutal luck.
One of the main talking points for the next week or so will be why the Raiders didn’t trade back at either (or both) of their picks. If the San Francisco 49ers got offered a late-round pick to move back one spot, couldn’t the Raiders have taken the same deal to move back to 14 and still get an elite receiver?
At 19, couldn’t the Raiders have moved back with a team like the Los Angeles Chargers, 49ers or Green Bay Packers — all of whom moved up later on? The latter is definitely possible, but none of those trade packages would have made much sense for the 19th pick and maybe those teams weren’t willing to sweeten the pot a whole lot more.
And ultimately, that’s kind of what this evaluation process comes down to: do you trust your team to make tough decisions or not? You’re never really going to know whether the Raiders liked Arnette as a top-20 guy, or whether they said ‘no’ to a trade they should have said ‘yes’ to — it’s simply whether or not you believe Mike Mayock is worthy of trust or not. And based on last year, I think he deserves for the answer to that question to be ‘yes’ for now.
Let’s get to the picks…
Pick No. 12, Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
For folks who may not have followed the draft process incredibly closely, this pick may have been a bit of a surprise. Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb were the two names you may have heard talked about the most, but the reality is that most people had Ruggs on the same level as both of those guys (I even had Ruggs ahead of Lamb on my personal board).
I get the fear: is this the next John Ross? A guy who is fast as heck, but can’t actually translate that onto the field? No, no, no, no. A quick look at Ruggs will make you realize this is a guy who is far more than just a sprinter. Not only does the kid love football and play with the type of toughness the Raiders clearly crave, but apparently we’re talking about a guy who fits the mold of last year’s batch of rookies as well:
SEC scouts I’ve talked with all said Ruggs was the leader in that room of the 4 dudes. Easy to see why Gruden & Mayock liked him
— John Middlekauff (@JohnMiddlekauff) April 24, 2020
During the pre-draft process, I talked to a lot of experts about these receivers, and one that stood out to me was what Jim Nagy said about Ruggs. Nagy runs the Senior Bowl (where he scouts the entire nation), and was an NFL scout before that, and here was his take to me on Ruggs:
FWIW, @JimNagy_SB told us: “Ruggs is my favorite and I think he’s the best one. He’s got a rare trait those other two guys don’t have. And he isn’t just a speed guy — he can run routes, he’s tough, he’s competitive, he goes inside, I mean, he catches everything.”
— Jeff Spiegel (@JeffSpiegel) April 24, 2020
Apparently Mayock and Gruden agreed, hoping they just got themselves the next Tyreek Hill. Here’s one last thing I’ll add on Ruggs — and it’s something that Mayock actually said during his press conference after the first round:
“We think that his addition opens up our entire offense,” Mayock said. “He can run the deep routes. He also gets the manufactured touches, the bubble screens, the jet sweeps. If you force defenses to roll coverage, it opens up our run game. You respect our deep routes and it opens up Darren Waller. It does an awful lot of things for us offensively. The most important thing is Coach Gruden and the staff will get everything out of him.”
Grade: A
Position of need, elite player. This one was easy.
Pick No. 19, Damon Arnette, CB, Ohio State
Now for the shocker. Well, the position wasn’t a shocker, but the player was. No matter where you look, this pick is being called a reach. Mel Kiper Jr. had him as the No. 6 corner (No. 51 overall), Todd McShay had him as the No. 7 corner (No. 58 overall), Daniel Jeremiah had him as the No. 8 corner (No. 59 overall) and Dane Brugler had him No. 69 overall.
If you’re looking for a silver lining, it’s that none of these guys could agree on what to do with cornerbacks after Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson. For example, Kiper actually had Arnette rated above AJ Terrell, who was picked before him. Regardless of all this, the thing it comes down to is what I mentioned above: do you trust Mayock’s evaluation? Clearly Arnette was — at worst — the No. 4 corner on his board, and a guy worthy of a selection this early. Forget what everyone else is saying — that’s what Mayock is saying. Do you believe him?
Well, what is it about the player that the Raiders like? For one, he plays a position they needed to address. Whether they reached or not, the 2020 Raiders were going to be in massive trouble if they didn’t pick a cornerback until pick No. 80 — and for that reason alone I find reason to like the pick.
The second thing is that Arnette, by all accounts, is a perfect fit for what the Raiders want to do. He thrives in man coverage, he’s physical and he has played on the big stage. In fact, this stat from PFF was the most encouraging: among corners in this draft class, nobody allowed a lower passer rating when in single coverage.
Of course, there are questions about his maturity — which may or may not have been answered over the past 12 months depending on who you ask — and whether he has enough room for growth and improvement (he’s already 24 years old). But even when you read the scouting reports that had this guy way down the board for some folks, you can at least get a taste of what the Raiders must have loved about the guy.
Grade: B
On talent alone this grade would have been lower, but the positional value bumps it up a bit. This pick will be heavily scrutinized over the coming days and months, and may even be one that comes to define Mayock — for better or worse.
