In his final 10 games as coach of the Raiders, Dennis Allen didn’t win once. In fact, they didn’t even get within a field goal in any of the 10 games, which spread across the 2013 and 2014 seasons. In total, Allen was 8-28 before being fired after four weeks in 2014.
The following year, Allen joined Sean Payton’s staff in New Orleans as an assistant — and he rose to defensive coordinator before the 2015 season was over. Allen held that role until this past off-season when Payton retired, and he was promoted to head coach.
On Sunday, Allen will get a chance to coach against his former team for the first time — with both teams in desperate need of a win. The Saints come in at 2-5, but just one game back in the NFC South, while the 2-4 Raiders desperately need to keep pace with the Chiefs and Chargers.
The last time these two teams met in New Orleans was Week 1 in 2016, when Jack Del Rio elected to go for two with less than a minute to go, giving the Raiders a 35-34 win.
Key Stats
Saints: 32nd in turnovers, 3rd in percentage of defensive drives that end in a score
Raiders: 1st in percentage of offensive drives that end in a score, 31st in turnovers forced
Something has to give. One team gives up the ball more than anyone else, while the other creates turnovers at the second-lowest rate in the league. One team scores on more of their drives than anyone else, while the other allows teams to score on the third-smallest percentage of their drives.
As far as I’m concerned, both of these lean advantage: Raiders.
As we’ll get to below, the quarterback for the Saints is bound to make mistakes (regardless of who starts), so it just comes down to whether or not the Raiders can catch those mistakes.
On the other side of the ball, I’d trust a good offense over a good defense the way things are officiated today, so look for the Raiders to continue their red-zone momentum in New Orleans.
Key Players
Saints: Andy Dalton
As of Tuesday, the Saints had yet to name a starter for this game — with Winston being active in each of the last two games (but not playing).
On Wednesday, Allen announced that Dalton would not only start on Sunday but would be the starter moving forward as well.
Since taking over for Winston, Dalton has averaged 236.5 yards per game with seven touchdowns and four picks. In last week’s game against the Cardinals, Dalton threw four touchdowns and three interceptions — two of which were returned for touchdowns (and just 1:03 apart from one another).
For a Raiders defense that is 31st in takeaways, there’s some hope that last week’s Dalton makes a re-appearance Sunday.
Raiders: Josh McDaniels
I know, I know…not technically a player, but I think McDaniels is the key to Sunday’s game.
The Raiders got a big win, and there’s some momentum heading into Sunday’s game — but it’s going to come down to whether or not this team can execute in the red zone, and for my money, that responsibility falls on the play-caller.
The Saints have had a few extra days to prepare for this one (given that they played last Thursday), but the Raiders have more talent — and are two-point favorites — heading into Sunday.
Prediction
Raiders 30, Saints 28
Give me a push on the spread, but the Raiders on the money line. I think the Raiders offense is rolling and should score on anyone — although the rest advantage for the Saints does worry me. They’re league-average when it comes to stopping the run, so I’d expect another big day for Josh Jacobs, opening things up for everyone else on the Raiders offense.
Defensively, the Raiders have got to improve, but I’m banking on them having watched the tape back and found some extra motivation to be more competitive on Sunday. I do think they give up a lot of points and yards, but they get a couple of key stops (and turnovers) when they need them, clinching a second-straight win.
