If there was momentum pushing the Oakland Raiders train, it’s gone after an embarrassing no-show on their trip to New York (New Jersey) last Sunday. The Raiders are on the outside looking in at the wild card (due to a tiebreaker), they’re veering closer to .500 and nothing is guaranteed at this point in the season.
To make matters worse, they’re about to travel on the road for the toughest game remaining on their schedule in the Kansas City Chiefs. To be clear, a loss here doesn’t eliminate the Raiders from playoff contention — but it does make the four games after (all of which are winnable) that much more important.
On the flip side, a win on Sunday would not only give the Raiders more room for mistakes down the stretch, it would actually launch them back into the conversation for an AFC West crown. After the Chiefs, the Raiders play teams with a combined record of 17-27 (with two games at home and two on the road). The Chiefs’ opponents are an even 22-22, highlighted by a Week 13 trip to the New England Patriots.
If the Raiders were to win on Sunday, they’d move into a tie for the division lead — with the first two tie-breakers (head-to-head and divisional record) also locked up, meaning there’s a scenario in which the AFC West title comes down to record against common opponents.
But alas, we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. First, a few things to watch for on Sunday…
Derek Carr and the cold
If you’re on social media, you’ve surely heard the narrative: Derek Carr can’t handle the cold. If not, here’s Trey Wingo (via Jack Del Rio):
So @coachdelrio knows what he speaks of. Said Derek Carr does't like cold weather games. In games where temp is under 40 at kickoff.. here are his numbers:
0-4
152 Pass YPG
51% Comp pct
TD-Int (3-4)
9 Total QBRTemps at Arrowhead will be in the 30's Sunday
— trey wingo (@wingoz) November 26, 2019
Pretty damning case, right? Well, I mean, maybe? I can’t speak for having seen tape from games 1-3, but the idea that the Raiders lost last Sunday because Derek Carr was bad is insane. He didn’t play perfectly, but the Raiders’ issues had far more to do with receivers catching the ball and defenders tackling.
The point? Carr has an opportunity to squash a prevalent narrative Sunday, where the temperature is slated to be in the 30s.
Limit Patrick Mahomes to under 350?
If you think this is a joke, you didn’t see the first matchup between these two teams when Patrick Mahomes threw for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns — in a game his team was winning by more than two scores for the entirety of the second half. In fact, all four touchdowns came in one quarter, so, yeah.
Two weeks ago against the Los Angeles Chargers, Mahomes threw for just 182 yards with one touchdown and one interception. I’m not expecting that kind of performance from the Raider defense, but anything over 350 and this game is going to be a wrap.
Who wins the run game?
In the last meeting, the Raiders ran for 129 yards on just 19 carries, while the Chiefs gained just 31 yards on 22 carries. If they get a repeat performance in these departments on Sunday, the Raiders will have a serious chance to win.
We saw last week how stagnant the Oakland offense is when they can’t run the ball, and considering Kansas City is the third-worst run defense in the league, Josh Jacobs and Co. should be in for a big day.
On the flip side, it’s possible Mahomes dominated simply because Oakland was so committed to stopping the run? If they offer their defensive backs a bit more help in the pass game, will they still be able to keep the Kansas City rushing attack contained? To be determined…
Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers
I know it seems obvious to talk about turnovers when it comes to keys of the game, but both of these teams are among the best in the league at limiting mistakes. The Chiefs are sixth in the league with just 11 turnovers on the season (the fact that they’ve only thrown two picks all year helps), while the Raiders aren’t far behind with just 12 giveaways.
The difference is that while the Chiefs are in the upper-half of the league when it comes to creating turnovers, the Raiders are 25th in the league in that department. If you’re going to walk into Kansas City and escape with a win, this script is going to have to flip.
Special teams
I noted in my Raider Rewind on Monday that I was shocked at how back the Raiders have been at gaining field position on kick returns. Turns out, Trevor Davis (and the unit as a whole) is the worst in the league. In a game in which Oakland needs to maximize every little advantage possible, look for the Raiders to try and break a big play on special teams in order to set themselves up for success.
Prediction: Chiefs 28, Raiders 20
Too much to ask for the Raiders to go on the road and get this one. The Raider pass defense is brutal, and Mahomes is going to carve them up. If not for Andy Reid’s respect for Jon Gruden, the last time these two teams met may have looked a bit more like Monday’s Ravens/Rams beatdown.
I think the Raiders are better in this one and get the offense back on track thanks to a monster game from Jacobs, but it won’t be enough as the Chiefs control this one from start to finish.
