Yes, the Oakland Raiders might be on the verge of making the playoffs — but, no, they haven’t come close to “arriving” yet. On Sunday, the Raiders squeaked past the worst team in football featuring a rookie quarterback making his second career start, with a 17-10 home win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Taken in a vacuum, you could argue “a win is a win” or “just win, baby!” and move on — but the problem is that this game has only confirmed something that has worried me all season: this team lacks a killer instinct. In all but two games this year, the Raiders have had a lead of at least seven points. In fact, the Raiders have led by eight-plus points in two of their four losses this season. Shouldn’t that be a bigger deal than it’s being made out to be?
Take this last homestand for example. Yes, the Raiders won three times — but all three games came down to the final possession, and didn’t need to. And really, this is a theme that we’ve seen throughout the season. Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of where we’ve seen this pop up:
Win against Denver Broncos
This was the one game all season in which the Raiders opened up a comfortable lead and maintained it throughout. The closest Denver got was eight points with just a couple minutes left in the game, and the Raiders were able to run the clock out.
Loss against Kansas City Chiefs
Did you know the Raiders were up 10-0 with the ball in the first half of this game? That third drive would result in two yards and a punt, leading to four consecutive Chief drives that ended in a touchdown. After scoring on their first two drives, the Raiders would punt six times and throw two interceptions.
Loss against Minnesota Vikings
This game was never close — with the Raiders falling behind by 21 points early on and mailing it in from there.
Win against Indianapolis Colts
Oakland’s first four drives: touchdown, touchdown, fumble, touchdown. Oakland’s last six drives: punt, punt, punt, field goal, punt, punt. The Raiders survived, yes, but the offense has to be better than this — even against a team as good as Indianapolis.
Win against Chicago Bears
This was the most glaring example of the bunch, as the Raiders jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first half against a hapless Bears team. Even as this lead extended into the second half, I was just waiting for the Raiders to crush the will of their opponents.
Instead? The Raiders turned it over twice and punted twice on their first four possessions of the second half, allowing the Bears to take the lead 21-17 late in the second half. Fortunately, the offense rallied for a fourth-quarter comeback and secured the win (thanks Chase Daniel!), but this game was far closer to a loss than it should have been.
Loss to Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers was on, and, well, nothing else mattered.
Loss to Houston Texans
Oakland actually led in this game — 7-0, 14-7, 14-10, 14-13, 21-13, 21-20 and 24-20. Result of the game? LOSS.
Win against Detroit Lions
This game was a back-and-forth affair throughout, but it looked like the Raiders got the upper-hand in the second half when Derek Carr hit Foster Moreau for a 3-yard touchdown pass to take a 24-17 lead eight seconds into the fourth quarter. After the Oakland defense forced back-to-back punts from Detroit, it seemed all the Raiders needed was one more score to put this game comfortably out of reach. But did they get that score? Of course not.
Instead, the Lions tied the game with 5:16 left in the game — forcing yet another late-game drive from Carr and the offense. Fortunately, they got it — but it wasn’t without some anxiety.
Win against Chargers
The Raiders jumped out to an early 10-0 lead (thanks to the defense) — but it quickly disappeared after back-to-back touchdowns from the Chargers. The Raiders re-took the lead before the half — a lead they maintained until there were four minutes remaining in the game (when Phillip Rivers hit Austin Ekeler for a touchdown that put them up 24-20). Fortunately, as has been a theme thus far, the offense got the one they needed — getting the win behind a Josh Jacobs touchdown run.
Win against Cincinnati Bengals
Up 14-7 heading into halftime and having scored touchdowns on their last two real drives, the Raiders got the ball back after stopping the Bengals coming out of the locker room. Going up against one of the worst defenses (if not the worst defense in the league), it would have been safe to assume that Oakland would be able to add a couple of touchdowns and put this away.
Instead? Oakland’s four second-half drives featured two punts, an interception and a field goal. While the defense got five stops and forced one field goal, the offense couldn’t get the job done. Absolutely unacceptable.
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So what’s the point? Yes, of course I’m thrilled with what I’ve seen from the Raiders this season. Even with their flaws, they’re light-years ahead of where many expected them to be. But, while not wanting to be a Debbie Downer, this team has shown enough cracks that we need to temper expectations a bit. It doesn’t mean they won’t be a playoff team, it just means that it’s a friendly reminder that they’ve got a long way to go.
