Is Benching Derek Carr The Raiders’ Best Path Forward?

Jeff Spiegel
Jeff Spiegel
6 Min Read
Las Vegas Raiders Derek Carr (4) prepares to hand the ball off during the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on December 24, 2022. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs Las Vegas Raiders Week 16

Is Derek Carr a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback?

This is the question that Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler must answer over the next couple of months, knowing that whether they answer correctly or not will determine both their fate and the fate of the entire franchise. During his press conference on Monday, McDaniels indicated that some guys’ playing time would change over the coming weeks now that the Raiders have essentially been eliminated from the postseason (technically, they’re still alive, but their odds are roughly 1%).

Naturally, everyone wondered whether or not he was referring to quarterback Derek Carr — whose future with the franchise remains murky. Ultimately, his future will depend on the question asked above, which is murky itself.

Derek Carr, Steelers, Raiders
Dec 24, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) looks to pass the ball as Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt (90) defends during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

In the last 10 seasons, here are the quarterbacks who have started in the Super Bowl: Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson (2x), Peyton Manning (2x), Tom Brady (5x), Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes (2x), Matt Stafford and Joe Burrow.

I’ll be honest: that list is surprising to me. Mahomes, Manning, Brady and Wilson all were/are elite (i.e. top five) quarterbacks (although Manning was far from elite in his 18th season in 2015) — but some of the other names on that list? Cam Newton made it in his MVP season, and Joe Burrow is probably a top-five quarterback now — but the rest?

Now it’s your time, to be honest: is Derek Carr really in a completely different tier than Flacco, Kaepernick, Ryan, Foles, Goff, Garoppolo and Stafford (three of whom won Super Bowls)?

The problem with the typical quarterback evaluation is that it lacks nuance entirely. Yes, there are a small handful of quarterbacks who can carry a team to a Super Bowl single-handedly, but there’s an additional tier of passers who are good enough to win one in the right situation.

Is Derek Carr in the first tier? Of course not — not even close. But is he in the second? That’s the more challenging question.

Raiders, Allegiant Stadium
Dec 18, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; A general overall view as Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws the ball against the New England Patriots at Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders defeated the Patriots 30-24. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

As we’ve discussed before, Carr has never had a top-20 defense. Never. He’s also on head coach No. 8 and offensive play-caller No. 6. His leading receiver has been a tight end four times in eight seasons, and his entire tenure has been plagued by abysmal drafting.

So yeah, his record has been disappointing — just two playoff appearances through his first nine seasons (assuming 2022 doesn’t end with a miracle), but is that the most accurate reflection of who he is as a quarterback?

The truth is, I get the fans who are fed up with Carr. He is and has been the face of a franchise that has provided gut punch after gut punch to their fans. He plays the most important position, and his deficiencies are highlighted in a division that features both Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

But to these same people, I would ask you to consider that the alternatives are not always better.

On Monday night, ESPN put up a graphic during the Colts game showing the quarterbacks they have turned to in the wake of Andrew Luck’s surprising departure. Because their roster has been competitive, the Colts have never drafted high enough to get a franchise quarterback — a dilemma I’d suggest the Raiders would find themselves in should they move on from Carr — and therefore, they’ve had to get creative.

Matt Ryan, Colts, Raiders
Nov 13, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan (2) drops back to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Since Luck left, here are the guys they have turned to:

  • Jacoby Brissett (11-19)
  • Brian Hoyer (0-1)
  • Phillip Rivers (11-6)
  • Carson Wentz (9-8)
  • Matt Ryan (4-7-1)
  • Sam Ehlinger (0-2)
  • Nick Foles (0-1)

As much as you’d like to believe that wouldn’t be the Raiders’ future, odds are it wouldn’t be dramatically different. For every Mahomes that pops up outside the top five in the draft, there are four guys like Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love and Josh Rosen.

All of this is what I’m hoping is running through the mind of McDaniels and Ziegler this week.

Is Carr perfect? No. Is he very expensive? Yes. But is he the best chance this franchise has of making the playoffs in the next 2-3 years? Absolutely — whether they want to admit it or not.

Information

Jeff Spiegel was raised in California but currently resides in Portland, Oregon. After graduating from the University of Oregon, he worked in sports before entering journalism full time — first as a Sports Reporter and then as the Associate Editor of a small newspaper. Online, he has been writing about both the Raiders and Dodgers since 2012 — having written for DodgersNation.com and SBNation.com prior to joining both DodgerBlue.com and RaidersNewswire.com. He left full-time journalism in 2012 to become a pastor. Jeff can be found on Twitter at @JeffSpiegel. Favorite Raider This one is an easy one for me: Charles Woodson. When the Raiders drafted him, there was nothing to dislike about the guy — he was exciting and he was freaking good. Unfortunately, of course, he left after eight seasons — but when he returned in 2013 it was one of the better Raider moments of my lifetime. At that point, I didn't care how washed he was (and he wasn't!) — I just liked having him back in the silver and black. Obviously Tim Brown is another guy that was easy to love, but Woodson is the all-timer for me. As far as current, I'm still a believer in Derek Carr and think he's going to figure this all out. Favorite Raider Moment I think I'll go with the two weeks leading up to the 2001 Super Bowl. As a kid, I remember getting the newspaper every morning to read what they were talking about, clipping out the articles to keep for later. It was obviously far more exciting than the Super Bowl itself, but I'll never forget those moments of hope leading up to the Super Bowl. I referenced it above, but second to that was probably the return of Charles Woodson in 2013 — I just loved the guy, and never dreamed he'd actually come back.