Alas, the Oakland Raiders are back home — and the timing couldn’t be more perfect given the two-game losing streak they bring with them. As it stands, the Raiders are 1.5 games out of both the division and the second wild-card spot (although both the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs own the tiebreaker) — but with a significantly easier schedule headed down the road.
In seven games this season, the Raiders have played five projected playoff teams — with their last six games coming against teams with a combined 31-15 record. On the flip side, their next four games are against teams with a combined 7-22-1. So what does it mean? As I tweeted the other day, I think it means the next nine weeks will tell us far more about this team than the first seven games did.
I’m less interested in watching them lose in Green Bay than I am about what happens when they host a team like the Detroit Lions. Maybe in a couple of years, they’ll be realistically competing with the elite teams in the league, but the next step in the franchise’s progression is beating up on teams hovering at or below .500.
So with that said, here are some things to keep an eye on this week when Matt Patricia and the Lions come to town…
Strength against weakness
The Lions enter the game with the fifth-best passing attack in the league, averaging 282 passing yards per game. The Raiders, on the other hand, enter the game with the league’s third-worst passing defense — giving up an average of 285 yards per game.
So, what gives?
I’ll be curious to see if the Raiders mix things up defensively, with more of an emphasis on disrupting Matt Stafford and Co. Oakland has boasted one of the better run defenses in the league this year (ninth-best) — and with Kerryon Johnson out for the year, I wonder if the Raiders dare Detroit to beat them on the ground.
Offensive shootout
Somewhat in line with the first thing to watch for, but expect this game to have some fireworks. Not only have the Raiders struggled to defend the pass — but the Lions are actually worse, giving up 290 yards per game through the air. And on the ground? It’s not a whole lot better — as they have the seventh-worst run defense as well (131 yards per game).
Coming off his best game of the season, Derek Carr should feast on the Lions’ secondary — while a more healthy version of Josh Jacobs could also be in line for a monster game. The over/under on this game is 50.5, and I think the over is ready to be pounced on.
In their last four games, the Raiders and their opponents have averaged a combined 54 points per game — and that was against far better defenses than Detroit’s! The Lions’ combined scores over the last four games? Over 59 total points!
Watch the turnover battle
In seven games, the Raider defense has forced just five turnovers (3 interceptions, two fumbles recovered). Meanwhile, the Lions have managed to force 12 turnovers thanks to a league-high 13 forced fumbles (nine of which they have recovered). On the season, the Lions are +3 in the turnover battle, while the Raiders are -3.
Penalties?
Last week the Raiders killed themselves with penalties. Despite playing just seven games, the Raiders are fourth in the league in penalty yards (the Lions are 21st). Again, like turnovers, this is just one more thing that limits the margin for error — which isn’t high to begin with.
Player to watch: Kenny Golladay
The third-year man out of Northern Illinois is coming off his best game of the season, in which he torched the Giants for 123 yards and two touchdowns. On the season he has 31 catches for 508 yards and six touchdowns.
Can the depleted Raider defensive backs contain Golladay and make his life difficult? Last week the Texans found creative ways to get Deandre Hopkins matched up on linebackers in zone — and if the Lions can do the same, watch out.
Prediction: Raiders 31, Lions 28
I think the home-field-advantage gives the Raiders a boost — and an even bigger one than normal given how long they’ve been gone. I’m guessing penalties are a big point of conversation this week, and that they get that cleaned up before Sunday. If that’s the case, I think Paul Guenther and Co. can get just enough stops to get the win — keeping the season on track and playoff hopes alive.
