It’s not easy to be encouraged as a Las Vegas Raiders fan nowadays, but Sunday might actually offer a small ray of hope: the Denver Broncos, one of the two teams the Raiders have actually beaten this season, are on the schedule.
Now the mighty Broncos have a whopping three wins and enter this game as the favorite, but more optimism: the line is moving in the Raiders direction! It opened at three points in favor of the home team, but has dropped to 2.5 as the week has gone on.
The sharps know!
In the first matchup, the Raiders won 32-23 behind a monster Josh Jacobs performance (remember those?), a defensive touchdown (my editor tells me that contrary to my personal life experience that these are, in fact, allowed) from Amik Robertson and — wait for it — a solid performance from the Raiders defense.
Seriously! The Broncos gained just 12 first downs, netted 299 total yards, gave up three sacks of Russell Wilson and were 3/11 on third down. All of those, to state the obvious, were season bests for a Raiders defense that ranks among the worst in the league.
So, now that we’re six weeks deeper into the season and playing in Denver, can the Raiders end their losing streak and get back in the win column? Let’s break it down…
Key Stats
Denver: 32nd in scoring offense, 32nd in red zone touchdown %, 30th in first downs, 31st in 3rd down conversion rate, 27th in sacks allowed
Las Vegas: 30th in offensive plays run, 32nd in sacks, 32nd in turnovers forced, 32nd in defensive red zone touchdown %, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed
What happens when the worst offense in the league meets one of the worst defenses in the league? When a team that converts third downs and red zone opportunities at the lowest rate in the league meets a defense that allows their opponents to convert them at the highest rate in the league?
We’re about to find out on Sunday.
I actually think Sunday might be the clearest picture of what sort of coaches we are actually dealing with on both of these teams. Sometimes it can be tricky to separate how much of the problem is talent or luck or whatever, but when you face a team for the second time in less than two months, I think you learn a lot. Who adjusts better? Who prepares better?
We’ll find out Sunday.
Key Players
Denver: Greg Dulcich
The rookie tight end out of UCLA has been one of the lone bright spots for a Denver offense that — as we mentioned above — has been really, really bad. And Sunday, he faces a Raiders defense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.
Coming off a down week (1 catch, 11 yards), look for Dulcich to be a big factor on Sunday.
Las Vegas: Josh Jacobs
While everyone (rightfully) remembers how dominant Jacobs was as a runner last time these two teams met, it was his work in the passing game I’ll be watching on Sunday. In Week 4, Jacobs caught five of six passes thrown his way for 31 yards — his second-highest total this season. He’s also coming off a season-high in catches (6) and targets (8), so look for this to be more of the plan moving forward.
Prediction
Raiders 30, Broncos 28
I know, I know — I’m a sucker. For some reason, I just can’t quit this team. I keep thinking that this week things are going to click, and I keep getting a swift kick to the groin on Sundays….and yet….I think the Raiders win on Sunday.
The Broncos are really bad, the Raiders are a desperate team and I just can’t wrap my mind around this group being 2-8.
