What could have been…
This Sunday, Josh McDaniels and the Las Vegas Raiders face his former team, the New England Patriots, in a game that was originally scheduled for the national TV spot and Sunday Night Football. And then…the Raiders did the Raiders thing.
A week ago, it all made sense: McDaniels v Belichick, two teams fighting it out for the final playoff spot — not to mention the Tuck Rule history that hovers over this game every time these two teams meet. Of course, that all changed when the Raiders blew yet another lead, lost yet another winnable game, and all but officially took themselves out of the playoff race last Thursday.
Now? The Patriots are playing for the postseason, while the Raiders are playing for pride and for the individual futures of a bunch of their players.
Key Stats
New England: 5th in points allowed per game (18.4), 32nd in Red Zone TD % (38.9%)
The players change, but the essence of the Patriots never seems to. Yet again, the Patriots have an elite defense paired with an offense that seems just good enough to put them in contention.
For a Raiders offense that struggled against a broken-down Rams defense a week and a half ago, this will be a huge test — especially given the deflating loss they’re coming off of.
Las Vegas: 32nd in opponent completion percentage (69.7%), 31st in takeaways per game (0.8)
Just like the Patriots: faces change, but the Raiders’ inability to force turnovers never does. The Patriots are 23rd in giveaways, while the Raiders are 31st in takeaways — and so the key to this game is likely to come down to which of those two things is going to give on Sunday.
Key Players
New England: Matthew Judon
For as much love as we’ve given Maxx Crosby in this space, Judon belongs in the very same breath for the way he has performed this season. Last week he notched 1.5 sacks, giving him 14.5 on the season (he has sacks in 9 of 13 games so far) to go along with 50 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and 26 QB hits.
Now, for all the talk about how shaky the Raiders’ offensive line has been, they are 6th in sack rate against, so this should be an interesting matchup for Kolton Miller and Jermaine Eluemunor.
Las Vegas: Derek Carr
I wrote earlier this week about how much blame I think Carr deserves for yet another failure of a season, but regardless of how I feel big picture, it’s impossible to ignore how bad he was against the Rams. For a guy who is desperate for a bounce-back performance, the Patriots aren’t necessarily who you hope to see on the schedule — but this will be a good test for the Raiders offense, and maybe even more specifically, McDaniels going against a group of coaches he knows better than anyone.
Prediction
Patriots 24, Raiders 23
I was low on the Patriots coming into the season and high on the Raiders, but it appears I was wrong on both accounts. I think the Raiders jump out to another lead in this one, but the Patriots make better adjustments as the game goes on — eventually gashing the shaky Raiders defense and winning a close one.
