With NFL Draft week upon us, it’s time for the final three pieces in our annual Pick or Pass series (Big Board and Mock Draft coming later this week), beginning with a conversation about trades.
First, a disclaimer: just because you want to trade doesn’t mean you’ll find someone interested, so you’ve got to take into account who is trading and why. Add in the fact that general managers will be isolated in their basements this year (away from the hoard of draft personnel), and it might make trades a bit more complicated.
For the Las Vegas Raiders, there’s an obvious interest in trading in both directions — especially considering their two first-round picks. In this piece, we’ll evaluate two scenarios: trading up from No. 12 and trading back from No. 19.
Trading Up from 12
You’d think that in a draft that is already without a second-round pick, a sixth-round pick and a seventh-round pick that trading up would be off the table. But with two first-rounders, anything is possible.
If there’s one bummer for the Raiders in this draft, it’s that the top tier of defensive players are all going to be gone by the time they’re on the clock. Chase Young won’t drop past No. 4 at the latest, Jeff Okudah probably won’t last past No. 6, Isaiah Simmons won’t last past No. 8 and Derrick Brown should be gone by No. 9. While there will be some defensive talent at 12, it will be after a drop-off.
So let’s explore a hypothetical…
Imagine Joe Burrow, Tua Tagavailoa and Justin Herbert are all off the board in the first six picks in addition to Chase Young, Jeff Okudah and the first offensive tackle. Next up are the Panthers, who don’t necessarily need a tackle — and so let’s pencil them in for Isaiah Simmons or Derrick Brown.
Next up are the Cardinals at No. 8 — with either Simmons or Brown still on the board. The Cardinals will feel tempted to grab one, but they also are desperate for offensive line help. Can they really wait on an offensive tackle for second-year quarterback Kyler Murray?
What if the Raiders called and offered No. 12, No. 81 and No. 159? The trade value adds up, and it would allow the Cardinals to add capital while not falling too far to miss on the run on tackles that’s coming.
If the Cardinals say no and grab their tackle, the same offer could be made to Jacksonville at No. 9.
VERDICT: If moving 12, 81 and 159 could net the Raiders Isaiah Simmons, I’d pull the trigger. He’s an elite difference-maker that would immediately plug a hole on a defense desperate for playmaking. The price isn’t cheap, but the Raiders still have another first-rounder in play — and could even trade it in order to recoup some of their lost draft capital. For Brown, it would be a harder sell — simply because of the overall value of defensive tackles. I like Brown a lot, but I’m not sure I’d be willing to move up to grab him.
Trading Down from 19
Regardless of what happens at 12, I think trading down here is downright likely. Mike Mayock has talked about how much he loves the depth of this draft — and he’s the type of guy that makes his money on Day 2. If the Raiders could move back from here with a reasonable offer, I think they’d do it.
So who are some potential trade partners? The New Orleans Saints are picking at No. 24 and are in complete win-now mode. Would they move No. 24 and No. 88 in order to come up and get their first choice of linebackers? Or maybe to snag an offensive lineman before they’re all gone?
Another team to watch is the Indianapolis Colts. Is there a deal where the Raiders could send 19 to Indianapolis in exchange for both of their second-round picks (No. 34 and 44)? The Raiders may need to include their fourth-rounder — but with Indianapolis desperate for help at wide receiver, might they want to move up to grab a real difference-maker? Or what if they like Jordan Love and he’s still on the board? It’s not crazy, and it’s the type of trade I think Mayock would be drooling over.
VERDICT: Obviously we’re talking about a lot of hypotheticals here. What did the Raiders do at No. 12? Who is still on the board? It’s impossible to account for all of them. Regardless, I think if they got offered either of the trades I mentioned, I think they say ‘yes.’ Chances are the positional run at 19 isn’t one the Raiders are worried about missing (linebacker and offensive tackle seem the most likely). As far as receivers go, I think the Raiders wouldn’t see much of a drop-off from 19 to either 24 or 34.
In sum, imagine the chaos. Imagine if the Raiders could move 12, 81 and 159 for Isaiah Simmons. And then, at 19, they turn around and swap with the Colts for No. 34 and 44. They’d end up with: Isaiah Simmons, No. 34, No. 44, No. 80 and No. 91. You would imagine more trades to add some picks outside of the first three rounds — but that’s an incredible amount of firepower for Mayock to improve this roster.
