Please no.
I believe that was the tagline I posted on Twitter when rumors of Josh McDaniels’ connection to the Las Vegas Raiders head coaching vacancy first surfaced a couple of weeks ago. The guy who has become one of two “faces” of the despised New England Patriots? The guy accused of cheating on multiple occasions? The guy who traded Jay Cutler to draft Tim Tebow in the first round? The guy who went 5-17 in his final 22 regular-season games as a head coach? The guy who took the Colts job and then backed out at the last minute, leaving assistant coaches hanging?
With a playoff roster in place and one of the most attractive jobs in the league, we chose THAT guy?
The truth is, in checking Twitter, it appears as if I wasn’t alone among Raider fans. To say this hire — which was confirmed on Sunday (right before the Championship Round, in true Raiders fashion) — is unpopular among fans (and even players) would be an understatement.
And yet, as time went on, something inside me started to shift. As this became more and more real, my heart began to change.
Was it partly the homer inside of me needing to talk myself into it now that it was real? Probably.
But just because that’s the case doesn’t mean the heart change was all wrong. There are moments in which I blindly convince myself of something to make myself feel better, but with McDaniels, that didn’t feel like it was the case.
And so, to Raiders fans who are angry and disappointed, from one diehard fan to another, let me share how I got to where I am. This isn’t my way of telling you how to feel, just sharing a perspective that you may find some truth in.
In sum, I’ve got five reasons why I’m in on McDaniels (and GM Dave Ziegler):
1) We Could Have Done Much Worse!
I admit I got excited when Jim Harbaugh’s name surfaced in rumors (all of which appear to have come from his side of things), but besides him, who got you excited? Todd Bowles? DeMeco Ryans? Jerod Mayo? Two of the three have never been head coaches before, while the third went 14-34 in his final three years as a head coach.
Of course, Rich Bisaccia deserves a mention here for all he did to navigate this team through one of the more tumultuous seasons in NFL history, but even he didn’t really excite me. I know the players loved him, but that felt like a hire with a reasonable floor and a low ceiling — especially since it would have meant the status quo for a coaching staff around him (particularly on offense) that was underwhelming down the stretch.
With McDaniels, while he may not be the home run hire we all hoped for, I’d rather hand the keys to a 10-7 roster over to someone who has held them before.
2) It’s Good News for Derek Carr
This might be where I lose some folks, but the biggest priority in this search was finding someone who could convince Mark Davis to extend Derek Carr — and then get the most out of him. Well, it appears McDaniels is that guy.
On Sunday, Boston.com released a story that revealed the Patriots had inquired about trading for Carr ahead of the 2021 draft — a move that I’d imagine couldn’t have been made without McDaniels’ blessing. This narrative seems to have been confirmed by numerous NFL insiders:
I’m told Josh McDaniels laid out an extensive/aggressive offensive system that he believes Derek Carr can execute — focused on continued use of play-action and much more two TE sets w/both Darren Waller and Foster Moreau. Would be surprised if McDaniels isn’t #Raiders next HC. https://t.co/VixrJGCXA1
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) January 30, 2022
With Josh McDaniels going to be the next Raiders coach there is one thing that is cemented. (Previous tweet said dirt…accident talk to trxt) Derek Carr will remain the quarterback of the Raiders. Like that or not, it is reality. I think it’s a wise move for the franchise.
— Hondo Carpenter (@HondoCarpenter) January 31, 2022
Derek Carr and Josh McDaniels know each other a bit and there’s mutual admiration, I gather. Carr is entering the last year of his contract at a very reasonable $19.9 million. Let’s see what the new #Raiders regime decides to do at QB.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) January 30, 2022
The truth is, Carr is a top 12ish QB in the league — and he has proven this despite a career marred by offensive coordinator changes and a weapons deficiency throughout his career. Add in the fact that there isn’t an obvious upgrade or developmental project out there this offseason, and the only hope the Raiders have of competing for the playoffs next season is with Carr at the helm.
3) It Signals a Retool and Not a Rebuild
Hiring McDaniels shows that the Raiders are building with urgency — choosing a coach who has been in the league for a while rather than one who could learn on the job. We know McDaniels has been picky about which jobs he has pursued, and my guess is that part of his thinking was a desire to find somewhere he felt he could win — and win quickly.
As a Raiders fan, we’ve seen several tear-downs, and very few have resulted in actual success on the other side. When Jon Gruden arrived, he shipped Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper out but then squandered just about every pick he received. Thankfully, it doesn’t appear we’re in line for that sequel.
4) Connections Matter
One of the most important things about hiring a coach is understanding who they’re bringing with them. When Gruden arrived, he brought Paul Guenther and Mike Mayock along in the two most important positions beside his (since he was calling his own plays on offense). Guenther was a disaster, and Mayock was a first-time GM who was hamstrung by Gruden’s desire for control.
With McDaniels, however, I think it’s safe to say that expectations are high regarding who he might bring over as the defensive coordinator. Don “Wink” Martindale is one name that has been rumored, as he resigned from his role with the Baltimore Ravens in January since Martindale served as McDaniels’ DC in Denver back in 2010. Another name that has surfaced is former Bears defensive coordinator Sean Desai:
If Josh McDaniels becomes the #Raiders head coach, name to watch there for defensive coordinator is Sean Desai, who did a nice job in that role for #Bears this past season.
— Brad Biggs (@BradBiggs) January 30, 2022
There’s an advantage to hiring a guy who is well-respected in league circles and who has deep connections to some of the better potential defensive coordinators out there. McDaniels checks both of those boxes.
5) In League Circles, There’s Plenty of Optimism
You don’t get Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to praise and trust you by accident, and over the years, two of the league’s greatest figures have expressed their admiration for McDaniels. When I listen to plugged-in folks, it seems like it’s the same thing: he’s an elite play-caller, he has grown a lot over the past 12 years, etc.
At some point, all of that has to matter, right? Sure there’s some level that might be politics and blowing smoke, but what incentive does Belichick have for saying those things as his guy interviews for other jobs? It’s done purely out of respect and love — which shouldn’t be taken lightly.
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In light of all this, let me stress again: all of this doesn’t totally erase my skepticism. There’s still a leap of faith in believing his cheating ways are behind him and that he has learned from his mistakes in Denver. And yet — I’d argue some form of that leap exists with any potential hires.
In an offensive league, the Raiders just hired one of the (universally recognized) best offensive minds. They hired a guy that plenty of other teams wanted but got rejected by. And they’re pulling him and the GM away from the most successful NFL franchise of the past couple of decades.
Yes, it’s the hated Patriots. But hey, everything we’ve done for the past couple of decades hasn’t worked, so why not mix things up a bit?
