The list of things that humans are universally fantastic at is not a long one, but I’m certain that one thing that makes the cut is this: we’re remarkable at finding someone to blame.
If something goes wrong, then it must be someone’s fault, right? No such thing as bad luck — you create your own luck! No, “they’re just better than us” or “we had an off night”. It’s always someone.
For the Raiders, that person has long been — and continues to be — the guy playing the most important position on the field: Derek Carr. Now in his ninth season with the Raiders, Carr has yet to win a playoff game — making the postseason twice but seeing his team bounced both times immediately (in 2016, Carr was injured at the end of the regular season and was unable to play in the Wild Card Round).
So when asked who’s to blame for the 2022 version of the Raider disaster, this feels like a pretty open-and-shut case, right?
Right?
In most circles, the answer is yes — but not in this one. I think blaming Carr is the easy way out, and I don’t mean that to sound pompous; I simply mean that it’s easy. He’s the quarterback, the team is and has been unsuccessful (remarkably so in many years), and so A must be the cause of B.
But what I’d argue is that the truth is far more complicated and convoluted.
Yes, Carr has only made the playoffs twice in nine years — but his first appearance (which likely would have netted at least one win had he been healthy) snapped a thirteen-year drought. The reason I bring that up is to remind folks that the grass is not always greener.
Prior to Carr, the list of season-passing leaders featured names like Terrelle Pryor, Jason Campbell, Jamarcus Russell, washed-up Daunte Culpepper and Andrew Walter (with some Carson Palmer and Kerry Collins sprinkled in). Russell was obviously a first-round pick in the draft — the route many folks advocate going to replace Carr — and falls comfortably in a line of numerous highly drafted quarterbacks who have proven that finding the next guy is far from easy.
So that’s the “maybe he’s our best option” line of thinking, but what about arguments from history that are pro Carr?
Despite missing Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller for most of the season — and despite learning a brand new offensive system behind a patchwork offensive line — Carr is 10th in QBR, 11th in yards, 11th in net yards gained per pass attempt and t6th in game-winning-drives. Those numbers, given the circumstances around him, are actually pretty impressive.
Outside of this season, Carr has statistically stacked up well against other quarterbacks in the league. Nobody is arguing he’s a top-five quarterback, but I think it’s fair to say he’s comfortably in the top half of quarterbacks in the league. He’s not a guy who can carry his team to a title on his own — the number of guys on that list is probably less than five — but I think he’s a guy that could definitely be part of a title-winning team in the right environment.
With that in mind, check out this insane stat:
Raiders defensive ranks every season Derek Carr has been the starting QB:
2022: 27th
2021: 26th
2020: 30th
2019: 24th
2018: 32nd
2017: 20th
2016: 20th
2015: 22nd
2014: 32nd pic.twitter.com/DSOxaFlK6U— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) November 9, 2022
How many quarterbacks in the league today could overcome that sort of production from their defense? Patrick Mahomes, sure. Josh Allen, okay. Anyone else?
Peak Rodgers or Brady, yes — but both of those guys are on the downside of their careers. Even Justin Herbert, who many folks have penciled into the top 3-5 guys, has a similar amount of win-loss success as Carr has.
And it’s not just the defense. Think about the talent he has had on offense since coming to the Raiders…
Here are the leading receivers by year since he was drafted: Andre Holmes (2014), Amari Cooper (2015, 2016), Jared Cook (2017, 2018), Darren Waller (2019, 2020) and Hunter Renfrow (2021) before Davante Adams showed up. Running backs? Darren McFadden (2014), Latavius Murray (2015, 2016), Marshawn Lynch (2017), Doug Martin (2018) and then Josh Jacobs (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022).
And then there’s the coaching. Carr is on his eighth coach since coming into the league, if you count interim guys like Tony Sparano and Rich Bisaccia (he has also had at least six different play-callers over that time as well).
So what’s the point?
For one, Carr is a top 12-ish quarterback in the league, which means there are at least fifteen other franchises that would probably kill to have him. It also means that any Raiders fan who watched games between 2002 and 2013 would kill to have Carr under center as well (how quickly we forget how dark those times were).
But secondly, and maybe more obviously, it seems like pinning the failures of this franchise on Carr is misguided when you consider the franchise’s history. The number of quarterbacks who are capable of overcoming the circumstances that Carr didn’t is so minuscule that to compare him to them is foolish.
It’s not to say he’s perfect; it’s to acknowledge his shortcomings without going so far as to exaggerate them.
After 13 games, the Raiders currently stand to have the 8th overall pick in the draft. The way this team is playing, I’d expect that position to get worse as they continue to fight to win football games. If that’s the case, then I don’t see how keeping Carr isn’t the best path forward for this organization.
With guys like Adams, Waller and Renfrow under contract — as well as Defensive Player of the Year candidate Maxx Crosby — this roster has the star power to win now if they can just fill in the gaps with competent, average-level talent. Imagine saddling that group, though, with a guy picked outside the top seven in the draft. And with a coach who is desperate to win in order to prove himself after a disastrous year one.
For me, the obvious answer is to run it back in 2023. Add talent to the defense and to the offensive line through free agency and the draft while letting Carr and others get more comfortable in McDaniels’ offense.
If the defense improves and the record or production doesn’t? Then we can have a conversation — but until then?
Send the blame elsewhere.
