What do you want most in your quarterback prospect? Do you want polish and to see success on tape — even if it comes with a lower ceiling? Or do you want raw tools and a “top quarterback in the league” ceiling — even if it comes with incredible risk?
If you’re interested in the latter, let me introduce you to Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson — the guy whose draft night range of outcomes might be as wide as anyone in this year’s class. An absolute athletic freak on one hand, Richardson has just 13 career starts — and middling production within the small sample size (he has three career games with 250+ passing yards and just two games above 61% completion percentage).
From my perspective, you almost don’t even need to watch the tape of Richardson because the only thing you’re betting on here are traits. Even his best games are kind of a mess from a passing perspective, which tells you a bit about what his worst games look like. From a tools perspective, the guy looks like Josh Allen — the size and speed make defenders look foolish, and he has an absolute hose for an arm. And yet, if you told me Richardson’s professional career maxed out like 2022 Justin Fields I wouldn’t be surprised either. He will contribute as a runner — but if he never develops as a passer, it’ll be tough to justify drafting him as high as he’ll ultimately go.
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 244 pounds
40-yard-dash: 4.43
Bench Press: NA
Vertical jump: 40.5″
Broad jump: 10’9″
College stats: 3,105 yards, 24 TD, 15 INT, 54.7% completion; 1,116 rushing yards, 12 TD
The combine numbers here are just stupid — the jumps are all-time records for a quarterback (let alone a guy who weighs 244 pounds), and placed him 10th (vertical) and 27th (broad) among all combine participants. Oh, and he ran a 4.43 (27th) 40-yard dash. Insane.
The height and weight are also exactly what you are looking for when you talk about quarterbacks — this isn’t a running quarterback who you’re afraid of getting crushed, he’s a Josh Allen type who might be inflicting more damage on the tackler than he’s absorbing himself.
And yet…when you see the college stats, there’s reason for concern. His completion percentage was 105th out of 113 FBS quarterbacks — a warning about the inconsistency of his play throughout the year.
VERDICT: PICK
This is a tough one for me, but while I may not feel awesome turning this card in, I think I’d pull the trigger if I were running things for the Las Vegas Raiders.
The easiest way to win consistently in the NFL is to find not just a “good” quarterback, but an elite one, and while Anthony Richardson has a high likelihood of being a bust in my opinion, he also has a reasonable chance of finding himself among the top tier of quarterbacks as well.
At pick No. 7, I’d be willing to bet on those odds for the Raiders.
Of course, he very well could be off the board by then (and I’d struggle with whether or not to trade up for him), but given the inconsistency on tape, I’m not sure it’s a foregone conclusion he gets picked that early. For me it’s a “pick”, but I’m not positive it’s a great one.
