It’s a tough time to be playing football in the AFC for teams like the Las Vegas Raiders. Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen. Justin Herbert. Joe Burrow. Heck, even guys like Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence and Russell Wilson (lol, just kidding).
I honestly wonder: what are the conversations like when General Manager Dave Ziegler and Head Coach Josh McDaniels get real with one another as they consider what to do at the quarterback position in their building? As we’ve talked about in this space, I believe there are three paths forward for the Raiders: try to keep up with a star quarterback of their own (i.e. trade for Aaron Rodgers), try to stay competitive short-term with a mid-tier veteran (i.e. Jimmy Garoppolo), or completely hit the reset button. Having already evaluated the first two options, it’s time to ask the question: is starting over the right move?
Before we unpack that, let’s define what we mean: obviously, the Raiders would add someone to start in 2023, but it would be done purely to buy some time for a rookie quarterback to develop. This is the Jarrett Stidham or Jacoby Brissett option — bring in a backup-level guy on a short-term, inexpensive deal while using a first-round pick (and maybe more) on finding the organization’s future quarterback.
So…is this the move?
The argument for this is the most straightforward of all the pathways, from my view: given the vast number of holes on the roster, a quarterback on a rookie contract would be critical to turning things around in Vegas. Secondly, while the No. 7 pick isn’t necessarily “prime” quarterback drafting position, we’re all hoping this is the closest to the No. 1 pick the Raiders are this decade — so why not take advantage of this moment in time and take a swing? The final argument is related, but unlike 2022 there are actually some difference-makers at quarterback in this draft, meaning Vegas wouldn’t be reaching just for the sake of reaching.
Think about it: if the Raiders were able to draft Bryce Young or CJ Stroud (both of whom would likely require a trade-up), they would get five years of quarterback play well below market value, allowing them to invest cap space on both the defense as a whole and the offensive line.
Seems obvious, right?
Well, there are clear risks here as well: drafting a quarterback in the first round has roughly a 50% success rate, and while the Raiders would like to think that doesn’t apply to them, history suggests otherwise. Plus, even if you hit on this pick, it’s probably a punt on the 2023 season, given the talent in the AFC and the gap between the Stidhams of the world and every other quarterback in the division. (Even if you’re the most anti-Carr, pro-Stidham person alive, I hope you realize there’s a sizable gap between the two — and Carr came up short last season).
The more I think about the three pathways, the more I realize this comes down to how Ziegler and McDaniels “define current reality” to use a management phrase. How close is this roster really? Sure, there are studs on both sides of the ball — but we’re talking about a 53-man roster, and the back half is depleted, to say the least.
If the answer is “close”, then this rookie pathway is the wrong one. If you’ve got a window, you’ve got to take your shot by getting competent quarterback play in the door ASAP.
On the flip side, if they realize that no matter what they do at quarterback, this roster needs a mini-rebuild, then the clear choice must be door number three and a rookie quarterback.
When I do my best from the outside to analyze the roster, I don’t know how they come to any conclusion other than they need a rebuild. While it’s easy to get blinded by the talent of Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby, it’s even easier to realize the offensive line is only 40% built, and the defense has two difference makers out of 11 starting spots.
Oh, and they don’t have a quarterback.
So yeah, if I were running the Raiders, I’m passing on Rodgers and Garoppolo and devoting every second of my time toward evaluating Young and Stroud in this year’s draft. And then, when I’ve picked which guy gives me the best chance to build something sustainable in Vegas, I’m going all in and moving up to grab them. Sure, bring Stidham back for a year at some number under $10 million to keep things afloat, but make every decision this year with an eye towards 2024 and beyond.
